There is a growing debate in Gambian politics about which political party can genuinely be described as the most popular in the country. While some argue that the National People's Party (NPP) has emerged as the dominant political force following President Adama Barrow's victory in the 2021 Presidential Election, a closer examination of recent electoral trends suggests that the reality is more complex.
Looking at the combined votes from the 2022 National Assembly elections and the 2023 Local Government Chairperson and Mayoral elections, the United Democratic Party (UDP) recorded a slight lead in overall popular votes. The UDP accounted for approximately 38.23% of the combined votes, while the NPP obtained about 37.18%, giving the UDP a narrow advantage of about 1.05 percentage points.
Although this does not automatically mean that the UDP is more likely to win the 2026 Presidential Election, it challenges the argument that the NPP is unquestionably the most popular political party in The Gambia. These results demonstrate that the UDP continues to maintain significant grassroots support and remains a major political force in the country.
However, presidential elections often follow a different pattern from legislative and local government elections. The outcome of the 2021 Presidential Election provides an important example. President Adama Barrow secured 53.23% of the valid votes, while the UDP leader, Lawyer Ousainou Darboe, obtained 27.72%. This wide margin highlights the importance of looking beyond party structures when analysing electoral behaviour.
Political science theories provide useful explanations for this difference.
The Party Identification Model suggests that voters often develop strong emotional and long-term attachments to political parties, and these attachments influence their voting decisions. The UDP's strong performance in National Assembly and Local Government elections may reflect a deep-rooted party identity among many of its supporters.
On the other hand, the Candidate-Centred or Personality Model argues that individual leaders can significantly influence electoral outcomes. The 2021 Presidential Election suggests that President Adama Barrow's personal appeal, leadership image, and ability to attract support beyond the traditional NPP base played an important role in his victory. Some voters who may not have had a strong attachment to the NPP may have been influenced by their perception of Barrow as a presidential candidate.
Another important explanation is provided by the Rational Choice and Issue Voting Models. These perspectives argue that voters do not only consider parties or personalities; they also assess how government policies affect their everyday lives. Issues such as the cost of living, employment opportunities, economic management, electricity and water supply, healthcare, education, and overall governance may become decisive factors in shaping voter choices in 2026.
The Retrospective Voting Theory also provides an important lens for understanding the upcoming election. According to this theory, voters often judge incumbent governments based on their performance. If citizens believe that the government has delivered on its promises, they may reward it with another mandate. However, if they feel that their living conditions have not improved, they may seek political change.
The role of political alliances will also be crucial in shaping the outcome of the 2026 Presidential Election. The Gambia's multiparty system over the past decade has demonstrated that no single political party has achieved overwhelming and consistent national dominance. As a result, strategic alliances and coalition-building among political parties could become a decisive factor in determining electoral success. A united opposition strategy could improve the chances of challenging the incumbent, while the NPP's ability to maintain, strengthen, and expand its existing alliances could equally enhance its competitiveness in the election.
Ultimately, the 2026 election will likely be shaped by a combination of factors: party loyalty, candidate popularity, government performance, and the ability of political parties to present convincing alternatives to voters.
Therefore, it may be too simplistic to conclude that either the NPP or the UDP has already established unquestionable dominance. The UDP's combined performance in legislative and local government elections demonstrates strong party support, while President Barrow's 2021 victory demonstrates the power of personality and presidential appeal. The key question ahead of December 2026 is whether Gambian voters will primarily vote based on party identity, individual leadership qualities, political alliances, or the performance and policy direction of the government.
Only the electorate can provide the final answer when they cast their votes
