According to meteorological experts, the seasonal forecast is the result of collaboration among National Meteorological and Hydrological Services across the sub-region and beyond. They explained that seasonal forecasting is based on average climate conditions over large areas and extended periods, meaning local and short-term weather variations may still occur.
Experts further noted that rainfall forecasts are generally categorised into Below Normal, Normal, or Above Normal conditions, with “Normal” representing the average rainfall recorded over a 30-year reference period. They added that the forecast specifically covers the July, August and September (JAS) period, during which nearly 80 percent of the region’s total seasonal rainfall is usually recorded.
Stakeholders at the meeting were informed that the 2026 rainy season is expected to experience Below Normal to Normal rainfall conditions across The Gambia, with most areas unlikely to receive more than 700 millimetres of rainfall during the season.
The Department of Water Resources also disclosed that the rainy season is expected to end after October 20, 2026. Long to average dry spells lasting between seven and fourteen days are anticipated at both the beginning and end of the season.
Officials described the forecast as the best available scientific assessment of climatic factors likely to influence rainfall patterns in the country. They assured stakeholders that the forecast would be updated monthly beginning at the end of June 2026.
Furthermore, officials cautioned that the 2026 rainy season may show climate variability similar to that experienced in 2025, including late onset of rains, occasional flash floods, and alternating wet and dry spells.
The department pledged to continue issuing ten-day weather outlooks and daily weather forecasts to support preparedness and timely response to climate-related events. Officials also emphasised that the forecast should serve as an important guide for planning and decision-making across various socio-economic sectors in the country.
