Excerpt
from research reports:
Forcefully
removing autocrats from power rarely results in stable democracy. Overthrowing
dictators usually leads to political vacuums, civil wars, humanitarian crises,
new dictators and failed states. More wars, genocides, repression and state
failures occur during quasi-democratic transitional periods, when autocrats are
weakened but no alternative political system has become institutionalized.
The
potential for post-authoritarian chaos is especially high in developing
countries with ethnic divisions, no legacy of democracy, absolutist rulers and
dangerous regional neighborhoods. Western powers cannot expect peaceful
democratic transitions like those in post-communist countries of Eastern Europe
or military transfers of power in South America.
Leaders
should devise less reactive policies for potentially violent, destabilizing
breakdowns of autocracies. More choices are available than supporting military
action against dictators, costing many lives, or hoping that a Twitter
revolution will usher in democracy.
We
can learn lessons from peaceful transitions in places such as Ghana, Malawi,
Senegal, Tunisia, Indonesia and (so far) Burma.
“Leaders
should devise less reactive policies for potentially violent, destabilizing breakdowns
of autocracies.”
