The Gambia’s economic outlook remains positive, with real GDP estimated to expand by 6 percent in 2025, supported by the agriculture, construction and tourism sectors. Headline inflation has further decelerated, reaching 7 percent by end-October 2025. The outlook remains subject to significant downside risks stemming from global geopolitical developments.
The authorities are committed to the objectives set out in the ECF and RSF arrangements. Combined reforms will result in stronger tax revenue collection, including through strong administrative measures and the introduction of a carbon-based excise duty on fuel products in the 2026 budget. Going forward, policies geared towards reducing fiscal risks and preserving debt sustainability will be critical.
The Executive Board approved the authorities’ request for a waiver of non observance of the performance criterion on the end-June 2025 floor on the net international reserves target based on corrective actions taken.
Following the Executive Board’s discussion, Deputy Managing Director Bo Li issued the following statement:
“The Gambia’s economy continues to experience robust growth and declining inflation. Implementation of the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) program has been satisfactory, and reforms under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF) are advancing. The authorities have reaffirmed their commitment to the reform agenda despite ongoing global geopolitical uncertainties.
“The authorities remain dedicated to meeting the 2025 fiscal targets despite a delayed disbursement from Africa50. This will be achieved through strong tax collection and expenditure restraint by strict prioritization and control of cash allocations. It is critical to avoid spending overruns during the election period and maintain fiscal consolidation efforts over the medium term to build fiscal buffers, preserve debt sustainability and support social and development spending. Enhancing public financial management will further support fiscal discipline and accountability. It is also important to limit fiscal risks from SOEs and public-private partnerships, and to improve data consistency for greater transparency.
“Maintaining price stability and a market-determined exchange rate remain priorities. The central bank should ensure that any easing of the tight monetary policy stance remains data-dependent and supports continued convergence of inflation toward the medium-term target. The foreign exchange market is functioning well following the implementation of the foreign exchange policy. The central bank’s commitment to cease direct or indirect financial support to public entities is a positive step to safeguard its financial position. Strengthening regulatory capacity, risk-based supervision, and monitoring of sovereign risk exposures are crucial for financial sector stability.
“Progress on structural reforms is needed to strengthen governance, enhance the anti-corruption framework, and improve the business environment to foster private sector development and job creation. The operationalization of the anti-corruption commission, pending National Assembly approval, is a key step.
“Steadfast implementation of the climate change agenda under the RSF will bolster the economy’s resilience to natural disasters and support long-term macroeconomic and balance of payments stability. Going forward, careful sequencing of reforms under both the ECF and RSF, supported by targeted capacity development support, will be important.”
