According to the survey, conducted on the basis of voting intentions if elections were held in November 2025, the National People’s Party (NPP) and its alliance command 34 per cent support. MC Cham argued that this figure represents a ceiling rather than momentum for the ruling party.
“After nearly a decade in power, this level of support reflects the limits of incumbency, particularly amid economic pressures, governance concerns, and rising public expectations,” he said, adding that the ruling party “cannot credibly claim dominance at this level.”
MC Cham highlighted the 30 per cent of respondents who identified as independent voters as the most striking outcome of the survey, describing the bloc as decisive.
“These voters are not driven by party loyalty but by everyday realities such as the rising cost of living, institutional accountability, and the demand for credible and principled leadership,” he noted.
On the opposition United Democratic Party (UDP), which polled 14.7 per cent, MC Cham suggested the figures point to growing voter fatigue within the traditional opposition space and raise concerns about its ability to inspire an electorate seeking political renewal.
He also pointed to the early showing of the UNITE Movement for Change, which recorded 3 per cent support, describing it as a significant achievement given the movement’s infancy.
“The survey was conducted just weeks after the movement’s launch, before formal party registration and nationwide visibility. For a movement barely three months old, this is an encouraging foundation and shows that UMC has already entered the national conversation,” he said.
MC Cham concluded that the survey indicates more than 60 per cent of Gambian voters are not firmly aligned with any major political party, reflecting a broader national mood.
“This election will be shaped by ideas, performance, organisation, and above all the ability to earn the trust of undecided voters,” he stated, stressing that the political environment remains fluid and so the months ahead will be critical in determining the country’s future leadership.
