Aug 20, 2009, 8:08 AM
The Department of Water Resources has presented its climate forecast for the 2009 wet season.
According to a press release from the department, as in the past years, this product is the result of collaboration with the National Meteorological Services within the sub-region and beyond.
The release, however, stated that "to understand the forecast, the following facts must be noted: Seasonal forecasting relies on the prediction of averages over space and time and may not reflect all the various factors that influence regional and national climate differences; the forecast is relevant only for the entire season and within relatively large areas, since local and month-to-month variations may occur; rainfall results are usually expressed as being either below normal, normal, or above normal, within normal rainfall defined as the average rainfall during a 30 years period, and finally the forecast is only valid for the combined period of July, August and September (JAS), when approximately 80 per cent of the total season rainfall occurs in the sub-region, including The Gambia".
Consequently, the release added, for the rainy season of July, August, and September 2009, the forecast is one of below normal (most likely) to normal rainfall (likely) that is range of between 500 TO 750 MM of rainfall in The
"As of now, the above forecast is based on the best estimate of the impact of the various factors affecting rainfall in the country, and would be updated on a monthly basis starting from the end of June 2009," the release concluded.