Remember that there is always a difference between the person of the Chairman and the office of the Chairman.
Is there a genuine resolve by the ECOWAS Heads of State to move militarily into Niger to dislodge the putchists? What guarantees that Burkina Faso and Mali (two countries that are neighbours to Niger) will not move in to support the Junta In Niger thereby exacerbating the already polarized situation? Would Guinea just sit by and watch?
If this sub region is destabilized, Jihadists and Terrorist groups that abound in the Niger area could find fodder to feed on. They would come out from their hiding places in Libya (another neighbouring country) and would also descend from Nigeria and Chad to exploit the situation to the detriment of the entire sub region.
The ECOWAS Authority should really study and analyse the equation before moving in. The Authority may have Generals at their disposal but these generals will be moving into a terrain they are not familiar with. Niger is situated in the desert. It is in the heart of the Sahel. The two ECOWAS countries that may be familiar with the desert terrain are Mali and Burkina Faso and, as of what we know now, it is not likely that these two countries will be part of the forces that will move into Niger to dislodge a Junta they share a common vision with.
The possibility of a boomerang effect with fangs likely to bite other countries in the region and spread the coup d'etat virus rather than be bitten is looming in the horizon.
President Tinubu of Nigeria should be cognizant of the fact that Boku Haram elements have been causing mayhem in Nigeria and despite all the threats and actions by successive Nigerian Governments, Boku Haram is still active and menacingly rearing its ugly face in that country. How many school girls have been abducted so far in that country and still nowhere to be found despite all efforts? You have a home grown problem you cannot solve and now you want to move outside your territory to go solve another more serious problem in a more dangerous terrain. Niger and Nigeria have a common border. Boku Haram could cross the border from Nigeria and into Niger and be part of the destabilisation of the sub region. President Tinubu is being too ambitious : rather than opting for negotiations : a diplomatic process that could solve the problem, he is opting for a military solution. Let's wait and see what happens.
There seems to be a coup d'etat domino effect presently in the West African sub region and this, strangely enough, only concerns the French speaking countries. Why aren't the English speaking countries not succumbing to the trend of coup d'etat or not being targeted by the domino? The Francophone countries seem to have a common denominator. France seems to be the target. For ECOWAS to solve a problem, they should analyse this common denominator and examine why these Francophone countries have toppled their governments. They, ECOWAS, would then be well on their way to solving a problem rather that moving in with force and cause more problems rather than solving a problem.....
Now that ECOWAS has made it public that they would move in militarily to reinstate the ousted president Mohamed Bazoum, couldn't this endanger his life?
Let us accept the fact that there is a gangrene that cannot be cured anyhow. Thorough examination is necessary and must be carried out to cure this gangrene.
ECOWAS should start a process of negotiations rather than using force and possibly being embarrassed and tarnish the image of the institution....
This is my take on the situation in Niger and the sub region.
