The message was conveyed via a press conference held at the Central Bank on Tuesday 27 February 2024.
Mr. Buah Saidy, the governor of the Central Bank of The Gambia, revealed that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has estimated global headline inflation for 2023 to be 6.8 per cent. The IMF has also revised its forecast for 2024 downwards by 0.2 percentage points to 5.8 per cent.
However, Mr Saidy noted that the pace of the disinflation process varies between advanced economies emerging markets and developing economies. While advanced economies are expected to see a faster decline in headline inflation, emerging markets and developing economies are forecast to experience a slower deceleration in inflation, he said. “Global headline inflation continues to decelerate as moderating energy and food prices, along with monetary tightening continue to exert significant downward pressure on inflation in most regions.”
He added that prospects in the global economy have improved since the last MPC, thanks to the strength of the United States economy and some large emerging market economies, supported by both demand and supply factors.
“Sustained private and government spending in most economies combined with favourable supply developments contributed to the improvement. Against this backdrop, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), in its January World Economic Outlook (WEO] updates forecast global growth at 3.1 per cent in 2024, the same level as the estimates for 2023. However, the projections for both 2023 and 2024 are still lower than the historical average of 3.8 per cent. In addition, this outlook is shrouded with significant risks, including the impact of the ongoing geopolitical developments on international trade and commodity prices.”
Mr Saidy further stated that International commodity prices continue to decline, driven by the fall in prices of food, metals, and copper that outweighed the surge in crude oil prices. “The IMF All Commodity Prices Index fell by 0.3 per cent in January 2024, from the level it was in December 2022, and by 12.9 per cent from a year ago,” he underscored.
According to him, the FAO Food Price Index dropped by 1.2% in January 2024 from December and 10.4% from the same period last year. “This decrease in the index reflects ample supply, particularly grains, except for rice. International rice prices rose in January this year amid strong demand in preparation for Ramadan coupled with India's export ban. The FAO Rice Price Index increased by 1.2 per cent from December to January and by 13.0 per cent from a year ago. The World Bank forecast rice prices to increase by 6.0 per cent in 2024, underpinned by trade restrictions, adverse weather conditions, and geopolitical uncertainties.”
