As economic growth and energy security are increasingly at the fore, it is critical to understand the potential this underutilized resource can play domestically. On the international front, the ever-evolving global demand for gas means that the region can directly interact with global LNG dynamics via LNG exports. Sub-Saharan Africa will see growth increases in the consumption of gas over the next two decades, with demand increasing five-fold to over 200 Bcm according to the Commodity Insights report.
Almost three quarters of Africa's remaining recoverable gas resources lie in sub-Saharan Africa, with most of the reserves concentrated within six countries: Mozambique, Nigeria, Tanzania, Senegal, Mauritania and Angola.
Nations with gas reserves want to leverage these to meet economic and social objectives. Currently, Nigeria has the region's most evolved gas value chain, representing over 50% of regional gas sales for both domestic and export markets, and commercializing gas from both associated and non-associated sources. Many countries want to follow suit, publishing national energy master plans to highlight the potential gas has to transform economies.
On the supply side, gas production capacity is set to increase, along with the proportion of gas from pure-play gas reserves. Following an exploration revival driven by the ongoing success in the Atlantic Margin, developments in non-associated gas supply have taken place in recent years: Mozambique has overtaken Angola as the second-largest commercialized gas producer, driven by Eni's Coral South LNG project. Newcomers to the gas sector, such as Mauritania and Senegal, have launched a cross-border LNG-driven supply project in 2025.
In the medium term, most nations already engaged in gas production are poised for further growth. Countries such as Tanzania and Namibia, which either have small stakes in or are completely new to the world of natural gas, can also join the ranks.
Overall, Commodity Insights sees sub-Saharan Africa's gas production could increase over four-fold from today's level by 2040 based on discovered resources and project economics. However, many new reserves are offshore and in deep or ultra-deep waters, and are not co-produced with oil. These characteristics impact project economics, infrastructure needs and the business model of gas commercialization. The analysis ranks projects by breakeven gas cost to provide an indication of potential.
Cost modeling shows most unsanctioned non-associated gas supply has a breakeven cost above $2/MMBtu, with some projects in deep offshore reservoirs having costs above $6/MMbtu. Can this gas be competitive domestically and for export?
Global demand for gas via LNG has led to majority of gas commercialization projects coming online. In 2024, Sub-Saharan Africa maintained its 7% share of global LNG supply amid global supply expansion, owing to rising utilization rates in existing terminals and new wave of developments.
Export markets for new developments existing in both Asia and Europe as most sub-Saharan Africa producers are geographically well-placed both to supply these markets, and can optimize deliveries to the most valuable market at any one time. Analysts at Commodity Insights project sub-Saharan supply to triple, growing to 13% of the global LNG supply market by 2050.
LNG is not the only driver of growth. Commodity Insights also sees a "turning point" for domestic gas consumption. Although sub-Saharan governments are advancing regulations to support both exports and local use, domestic consumption remains central to policy discussions. Policy makers aim to supply fuel for much-needed reliable power generation, upon which Africa's economic development hinges, against the backdrop of a booming population.
As many African nations face significant electricity deficits, natural gas presents a viable option to expand electricity generation capacity while reducing carbon emissions. For instance, despite Nigeria being the region's most evolved gas economy, it also has the largest proportion of the population without access electricity. Only five countries in sub-Saharan Africa currently have gas as a major component in their power mix.
Commodity Insights' base case expects the share of natural gas-based generation to almost double by 2050 and account for over 30% of the total generation mix. As a result, sub-Saharan gas demand for power demand will increase over 400% by 2050 from today's levels, showing the greatest projected growth out of the two demand avenues. Additionally, policy makers hope to use gas for industrial purposes -- as feedstock and in the steel/mining sectors.
A Guest Editorial