The rise of terrorist activity in the region of the Sahel, Lake Chad, the Great Lakes and the Horn of Africa, and more recently in northern Mozambique, cannot be attributed solely to the influence of jihadist ideology from the Middle East. A number of factors have contributed to the deterioration of security, among them poverty, corruption, various local grievances, separatist movements, pre-existing intercommunal violence between herders and farmers over land rights (exacerbated by the consequences of climate change), weak state presence, and lack of prospects for young people.
In Mali, transnational jihadist groups emerged from the conflict triggered by the separatist Tuareg movement. More recently, in Mozambique, grievances and poverty in one of the country's poorest provinces in the Muslim majority north, Cabo Delgado, provided fertile ground for jihadist ideology, nurtured further by foreign preachers and returning students who had studied in Egypt, Libya, Algeria, Sudan and Saudi Arabia. The insurrection is also a protest against socio-economic asymmetries and inequalities.
The spike in violence attributed to jihadist groups and their ties to foreign movements has prompted international stakeholders, including the European Union, to launch counterterrorism operations, also involving local actors. The European Parliament has condemned these terrorist groups on several occasions and supported EU military and civilian missions in the region. Nevertheless, the military approach that the international community has preferred up to now has not succeeded in addressing deeper community grievances and strengthening state presence.
Armed groups with jihadist ideologies and links to Al-Qaeda and Islamic State have emerged across several areas of sub-Saharan Africa, mostly inhabited by Muslim majorities. The Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS) has killed several hundred civilians in Mali, Burkina Faso and Nigersince the start of 2021, while the group's 'West Africa Province' branch, also designated as the Islamic State in West Africa Province (ISWAP), will likely gain from the weakening of Boko Haram, with additional spillover of terrorists and foreign fighters from Libya.
Meanwhile, the expansion of ISIL/Da'esh in Central Africa – and especially in northern Mozambique – could have far-reaching implications for peace and security in the region. As said by UN counter-terrorism chief, Vladimir Voronkov, 'A global response is urgently needed to support the efforts of African countries and regional organizations to counter terrorism and address its interplay with conflict, organized crime, governance and development gaps'.
According to the UN Secretary General's July 2021 report on the threat posed by ISIL/Da'esh to international peace and security, 'the autonomy of regional affiliates has been further strengthened, especially in West Africa and the Sahel, East and Central Africa ... Some of the most effective Da'esh affiliates are spreading their influence and activities on the continent, including across national borders. Spillover from Mali into Burkina Faso and the Niger, incursions from Nigeria into the Niger, Chad and Cameroon, and from Mozambique into the United Republic of Tanzania, are all very concerning'. The worrying trend of jihadist activity is that its perpetrators largely exploit existing insecurities caused by separatist movements, intercommunal tensions and weak government presence, to take control of certain areas.
A Guest Editorial