Peaceful transfer of power trending on the continent
As
the results of The Gambia’s presidential election trickled in last December,
incumbent President Yahya Jammeh realised his power was slipping away. Indeed,
final results showed that a newcomer, 51-year-old businessman Adama Barrow, had
garnered 45.5% of total votes, while Mr. Jammeh received 36.6%.
Mr.
Jammeh unexpectedly conceded defeat and informed Mr. Barrow in a congratulatory
telephone call that “the Gambian people have spoken and I have no reason to
contest the will of the mighty Allah.” He promised “guidance on your transition
and when selecting a government,” and signalled the beginning of the end of his
22-year rule.
To
the surprise of many, a president who once boasted he would rule “for a billion
years if Allah decrees it” was presiding over a peaceful election and
transition.
The
Gambia’s election indicated that African democracy and obedience to the law was
coming of age, analysts said. Regional bodies, the Africa Union (AU) and the
Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) jointly congratulated the
people of The Gambia “for peaceful, free, fair and transparent presidential
elections.”
In
a joint statement, ECOWAS, AU and the UN also commended President Jammeh for
gracefully conceding defeat, and also congratulated Mr. Barrow for winning the
presidential election.
Nic
Cheeseman, a professor of democracy at the University of Birmingham, UK, and
the author of Democracy in Africa: Successes, Failures and the Struggle for
Political Reform, summed it up: “The news out of The Gambia is a boost for
African democracy. It reinforces important principles about leaders standing
down after losing power.”
But
excitement soon evaporated, as days later, on 9 December, Mr. Jammeh cited
irregularities in the election and called for its annulment. Fear of unrest,
intimidation and arrest forced citizens to flee to neighbouring Senegal. One of
those who fled was Mr. Barrow, the president-elect.
Human
Rights Watch, a US-based nongovernmental organization that promotes human
rights globally, accused Jammeh of human rights abuses and urged the
international community to stand by Mr. Barrow.
Why
Jammeh capitulated
There
were fears that the already muddled political and security situation could
deteriorate further after Mr. Barrow was sworn in at a hastily arranged
ceremony without the usual fanfare in the Gambian embassy in Dakar. “This is a
day no Gambian will ever forget in a lifetime,” Mr. Barrow said in a speech
immediately after being sworn in. “Violent change is banished forever from the
political life of our country. All Gambians are therefore winners.”
Intense
international pressure from ECOWAS that threatened military force to bring
stability to the country—from key national institutions, from Jammeh’s own
armed forces and from citizens who insisted on a peaceful transfer of
power—prompted Jammeh to agree to vacate office. He left the country on 22
January for Malabo, the capital of Equatorial Guinea.
Experts
are still debating the factors that influenced Jammeh’s capitulation, and what
lessons, if any, can be learned.
Despite
security problems in many African countries, from the Central African Republic,
the Democratic Republic of the Congo to South Sudan, the peaceful transfer of
power can be seen in a few exceptional cases—a development that may have
inspired Gambians to hold the line, experts say.
Some
examples: In 2015, Nigeria’s Goodluck Jonathan conceded defeat after voters
chose opposition leader Muhammadu Buhari in the presidential poll. In December
2016, Ghanaian opposition politician Nana Akufo-Addo prevailed over incumbent
President John Mahama, and a peaceful handover transpired.
Peaceful
elections took place in Tanzania in November 2015 when President Jakaya Kikwete
handed over power to John Magufuli. In Somalia, Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed, a
former prime minister, defeated sitting president Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and
assumed the presidency, following two rounds of voting in the capital city’s
heavily fortified airport. The country doesn’t have universal suffrage, so the
president was picked by the country’s 329 lawmakers.
In
The Gambia, citizens had begun mobilizing against the 55-year-old Jammeh, who
seized power in 1994 in a bloodless coup. His government censored the media and
was intolerant of the opposition. Journalists who dared criticise the president
were jailed, while others fled into exile. International journalists were
rarely given permission to enter the country.
Mr.
Jammeh “did not see that his repressive practices had gradually generated a
mass of popular anger, anguish, discontent and defiance,” writes Baba Galleh
Jallow, a Gambian journalist, who escaped to the US.
The
ex-president, a homophobe, once threatened to slit the throats of gays and
lesbians, and later promoted a law that dictated a life sentence for
homosexuals. He referred to himself as a miracle worker with powers to cure
AIDS, and left some 21,000 HIV-infected Gambians without lifesaving
antiretroviral drugs.
In
the three previous presidential elections, in which he managed to whip the
opposition, Jammeh was accused by the opposition of widespread rigging and
voter intimidation.
Regional
economic and political groupings, particularly ECOWAS and the AU, as well as
international organisations such as the United Nations, helped force Mr. Jammeh
to relinquish power, analysts believe.
The
UN Secretary-General’s Special Representative and head of the United Nations
Office for West Africa, Mohamed Ibn Chambas, stressed that “for Mr. Jammeh, the
end is here and under no circumstances can he continue to be president.”
Of
greatest concern was the threat by ex-president Jammeh to withdraw Gambia from
the International Criminal Court. However, after his victory at the polls, Mr.
Barrow took a different tack, announcing that the country would remain in the
ICC and hinting that criminal charges could soon be pressed against Mr. Jammeh
himself.
Lessons
learned
A
last-minute agreement brokered by ECOWAS suggests Mr. Jammeh may have been
concerned about his post-presidency life. The final agreement guarantees “the
dignity, respect, security and rights of former President Jammeh.”
In
an interview with Africa Renewal, Professor Cheeseman listed three lessons that
countries can learn from The Gambia. The first lesson is that “opposition unity
is critical to opposition success.”
As
the elections approached, two parties, the Gambia Party for Democracy and
Progress and the Gambia Moral Congress, combined to form the Peoples’ Alliance,
led by Mr. Barrow. This allowed the coalition to successfully wrestle power
from Mr. Jammeh’s Alliance for Patriotic Reorientation and Construction
Party.
The
second lesson is that “fashionable biometric election technology is not
required to remove an authoritarian government from power.” Gambians voted with
marbles, yet Jammeh lost. But Mr. Jammeh had anticipated victory, and his
rejection of biometric voting, which uses biometric identifiers such as
fingerprints to minimize election fraud, could have been a ploy to avoid a free
and fair process.
The
third lesson, continued Professor Cheeseman, is that “it is very dangerous to
start talking about prosecuting leaders before they have actually left power,”
alluding to Mr. Barrow’s publicized threat to bring charges against Mr. Jammeh
before the ICC.
Mr.
Barrow himself rode to power on a wave of populist messages: he has vowed to
respect human rights, media freedom, civil society’s right to free expression,
and judicial independence. Last February he was spotted wearing a T-shirt
reading, “Free Press for a New Gambia.” Some interpreted this as a symbolic
show of support for a free press and, perhaps, a dig at his predecessor.
Hopes
brighten for the future
It
may take time before Gambians begin to enjoy the economic dividends expected in
a functioning democracy. Because Mr. Jammeh strained The Gambia’s relations
with the EU, the country lost millions in precious aid money. As a result he
looked to the Middle East and obtained a financial bailout. In 2015 he renamed
the country “the Islamic Republic of The Gambia,” a move that Gambians saw as
an attempt to curry favour with his new allies.
The
Gambia ranks 172 out of 186 countries in human development, according to the
UN’s Human Development Index report of 2016. The Index rates countries based on
their progress in education, health and the environment, among other
areas.
The
Gambia’s current administration has accused Mr. Jammeh of emptying state
coffers and siphoning $11.4 million of state funds just before fleeing the
country.
In
light of the country’s precarious financial situation, donors seem ready to
respond positively. The EU recently pledged about $238 million towards a rescue
package for the country. Even before donor funds flow in, Gambians are grateful
that an electoral crisis that appeared poised to degenerate into civil strife
was averted.
