In December 2019, President Umaro Mokhtar Sissoco Embaló triumphed in the presidential elections, securing a five-year mandate that positioned him to seek re-election in 2025. Yet, in December 2023, Embaló made the controversial decision to dissolve the parliament without setting a date for new elections. Opposition parties decry this move, accusing him of deliberately stalling the electoral process to entrench his power, an act they assert undermines the constitution. In retaliation, opposition leaders have threatened to incite mass protests, strikes, and acts of civil disobedience unless a clear election date is announced.
A further bone of contention lies in the dispute over the official end date of Embaló’s term. While the opposition maintains that his mandate will conclude on February 27, 2025, in accordance with the constitution, the Supreme Court controversially extended it to September 4, 2025—an extension that has been met with vehement rejection by the opposition.
Compounding the uncertainty, in September 2024, President Embaló declared he would forgo a second term in the upcoming elections. However, this decision soon wavered as he hinted he might reconsider after further consultations with his family. As such, the political atmosphere in Guinea-Bissau has become increasingly volatile, with unpredictable consequences hanging in the balance.
On March 3, 2025, a high-ranking ECOWAS delegation was sent to Guinea-Bissau to mediate the growing political impasse. However, their mission ended abruptly when President Embaló virtually expelled the team. Instead of offering a path to dialogue, the delegation was met with hostility, and diplomatic sources revealed that Embaló warned the ECOWAS mediators to stay out of Guinea-Bissau’s "internal affairs," issuing veiled threats that forced the delegation to curtail its mission.
Following this diplomatic snub, President Embalón finally confirmed to French President Emmanuel Macron that he intends to seek a second term in the November elections. This decision underscores his defiance of ECOWAS intervention, as he favors French involvement over that of his own regional organization—perhaps signaling a deeper affinity with France, as opposed to Guinea-Bissau’s former colonial power, Portugal.
Since then, ECOWAS has remained conspicuously silent, raising critical questions: Why has the regional body been unable to assert its authority and rein in Embaló? Why has it failed to take meaningful action, whether through persuasion or force? This paralysis departs from the determination of ECOWAS to resolve The Gambia’s 2017 political crisis and the military turmoil in Niger in 2023. The decisions, or lack thereof, made by ECOWAS in Bissau’s case will establish a significant precedent for future interventions in West Africa. It is essential to clearly define what constitutes internal affairs beyond ECOWAS intervention and what does not, ensuring clarity for all member states.
For his part, President Embaló, who presided over ECOWAS from 2020 to 2021, has exhibited an alarming disregard for leadership in navigating this crisis. His actions have plunged Guinea-Bissau into a political pandemonium, and any internal fracture threatens to destabilize the country, leaving him isolated even in the face of a military coup.
The question looms: Has Embaló secured the protection of France, or does he intend to rely on his personal rapport with President Macron to weather this storm? It may be wise for him to seek counsel from his former colleague, President Macky Sall of Senegal, on the reliability of French support in such a volatile environment. Ultimately, President Embaló’s choices will not only shape Guinea-Bissau’s future but will also determine the relevance and credibility of ECOWAS in safeguarding peace and stability across the West African region.
Oh, why not call in the true maestro of mediation, the legendary Dr. Mohamed Ibn Chambas, the great AU representative on ‘Silencing the Guns’? I mean, surely he’s been so laser-focused on The Gambia that he is missing the urgent situation in Bissau. Don’t you agree? After all, what could possibly be more pressing than yet another diplomatic mission for the ‘almighty’ doctor? Just make sure to offer him the right price in cold, hard foreign currency—because, well, we all know he’ll be more than happy to ‘oblige.”
