According to a survey released this week by civil society group Gambia Participates, if elections were held today, Barrow of the National People’s Party, NPP, would get 32% of the vote. UDP leader Ousainou Darboe polled 25%, while UNITE leader Talib Ahmed Bensouda received 19%. Seventeen percent of respondents said they were undecided.
UDP: Barrow is losing support
The United Democratic Party dismissed the poll’s credibility but used it to argue for Darboe’s candidacy.
“The recent survey shows one clear thing: President Barrow is losing support and popularity. Even the 32% given to him will drastically drop as we get closer to election day,” said Hagi Suwaneh, President of the UDP National Youth Wing.
The UDP said the 25% for Darboe proves “Gambians are demanding Ousainou Darboe’s candidacy to fix the country’s broken system.” The party also claimed the survey contradicts itself.
“If the sampling is correct, then there is a serious contradiction. A candidate cannot lead in KMC and WCR, the most populated areas, and still be dropped to 3rd position nationally. That tells you this is PR, not science,” Suwaneh said.
He added that “KMC and WCR are our strength” and predicted a UDP landslide in urban areas.
UNITE: “19% shows momentum”
UNITE welcomed the poll as proof of growing support for new leadership.
“For a relatively new political party, 19% is a significant achievement. It shows that Gambians are increasingly open to a new generation of leadership and that Talib Bensouda has emerged as a serious contender,” the party said in a statement signed by Tombong Saidy.
UNITE also pointed to the 17% undecided as an opportunity.
“The race is still wide open and there is considerable opportunity to convince more Gambians of our vision for national transformation,” the statement said. “68% did not select the incumbent. While a poll does not determine an election, it clearly demonstrates that the outcome is far from predetermined. 19% is encouraging. 17% is an opportunity. The race is open.”
NPP: Undecided will go to NPP Alliance
From the presidency, Special Adviser on Political Affairs Hon. Saihou Mballow questioned the poll’s methodology.
“The survey failed to detail a transparent look at methodology, sample size, and sponsor intent. Therefore it is essential to evaluate how data was collected before coming up with a conclusion,” he said.
Mballow also said including GDC leader Mamma Kandeh was “meaningless” because Kandeh has already endorsed Barrow and signed an MoU between GDC and the NPP-led alliance.
“I believe that the so-called 17% of the undecided voters will vote for the NPP Alliance,” he said.
With 17% still undecided and no campaign officially launched, the poll suggests a competitive race. Key issues likely to shape voter choice include cost of living, jobs, corruption, and climate-related flooding.
