Up to the 1990s, the stock of migrants—citizens of one country living in another country—was dominated by intraregional migration, but over the last 15 years, migration outside the region has picked up sharply. In the coming decades, sub-Saharan African migration will be shaped by an ongoing demographic transition involving an enlargement of the working-age population, and migration outside the region, in particular to advanced economies, is set to continue expanding. This note explores the main drivers of sub-Saharan African migration, focusing on migration outside the region, as this has greater global spillovers. It finds that the economic impact of migration for the region occurs mainly through two channels. First, the migration of young and educated workers—brain drain—takes a toll as human capital is already scarce in the region, although some recent studies suggest that migration may have also a positive effect—brain gain. Second, remittances represent an important source of foreign exchange and income in a number of sub-Saharan African countries, contribute to the alleviation of poverty, and help smooth business cycles.
Migration from and within sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is an important macroeconomic issue with spillovers for both sending and receiving countries. Amid rapid population growth, migration in sub-Saharan Africa has been increasing briskly over the last 20 years. While the migration rate—migration-to-total population—has remained stable at about 2 percent, the region has doubled its population between 1990 and 2013, recording the fastest population growth in the world. Up to the 1990s, the stock of migrants—citizens of one country living in another country—was dominated by intraregional migration, which early in that decade represented 75 percent of total migration. Over the last 15 years, though, migration outside the region has picked up sharply, mainly to Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries, and represented a third of the total stock of migrants by 2013.
This note explores the main drivers of SSA migration. Most intraregional migration is to relatively larger economies such as Côte d’Ivoire and South Africa, but the region also harbors a large number of refugees. Indeed, the number of refugees within SSA is higher than that outside the region. Meanwhile, migration to the rest of the world, mostly to OECD countries, is mainly driven by economic factors and grew rapidly in recent decades. The empirical analysis and outlook will focus on migration outside the region as this has greater global spillovers.
The economic impact of migration for the region occurs mainly through two channels. First, the migration of young and educated workers—brain drain—takes a toll in SSA as human capital is already scarce, although some recent studies suggest that migration may have also a positive effect—brain gain. Second, remittances represent an important source of foreign exchange and income in several SSA countries, contribute to the alleviation of poverty, and help smooth business cycles.
In the coming decades, SSA migration will be shaped by a demographic transition already ongoing in the region. This notably involves an enlargement of the working-age population even stronger than overall population growth. As a result, migration outside the region, in particular to advanced economies, is set to continue expanding. Over the long term, migrants may have a positive impact on growth in receiving countries, especially in those with aging populations, and bring additional tax revenues and social contributions as well. Meanwhile, the remittances sent to origin countries will continue to be an important source of foreign earnings and help to alleviate poverty and to smooth cycles.
Guest Editorial