There have been reports of three consecutive rain seasons that have failed to occur in East Africa, a condition that has exacerbated the food crisis in the region. The study by UNFCCC (2020) links the trend to the rising regional temperature at +0.3 °C/decade in 1991-2021, faster than the 1961-1990's +0.2°C/decade. The temperature of hot days will increase by 1.5-2°C in the Western part of Africa, with the Southern part experiencing a higher rate of temperature rise than 2°C.
On the other hand, the African coastline has been experiencing rising sea levels at a higher rate than the global mean rate, more so along the Red Sea and southwest Indian Ocean, where the rate is 4mm/year. These differences in the sea level trends across the African coastline, with some oceanic regions reporting an increase of up to 5 mm/year, whereas the South Western Indian Ocean from the east of Madagascar towards and beyond Mauritius has recorded a sea level increase of more than 5 mm/year (Kappelle, 2020). With projections that the rising sea level will keep increasing, there will be more severe coastal flooding in low-lying cities with high volumes of saline water due to seawater (saltwater) intrusion on the land as is the case of China (China’s Transition to a Low-Carbon Economy and Climate Resilience Needs Shifts in Resources and Technologies, n.d.). For example, 56% of the coastlines in Benin, Côte d'Ivoire, Senegal, and Togo are eroding, which is expected to worsen (Climate Change Is an Increasing Threat to Africa | UNFCCC, 2020). About 108-116 million people in Africa will be exposed to sea level rise by 2030.
Flooding
Frequent uneven flooding across the continent has been recorded in countries such as South Sudan, Nigeria, DRC, the Republic of Congo, and Burundi. The flooding has been due to a high amount of rainfall in 2020 and 2021 that has led to elevated levels of rivers and lakes. In Kenya, for example, Lake Naivasha has been reported to expand, affecting several people, whereas Lakes Baringo and Bogoria threaten to merge, possibly creating anticipation of an ecological disaster. The Budalangi residents in Kenya have almost been forced out of their homes every rainy season due to the flooding from River Nzioa. The high precipitation could be due to the retreating of glaciers on Mt.
Similarly, the total surface area of Lake Chad has shrunk from 25,000 km2 in the 1960s to about 1350 km2 as of 2000, representing a 90% decrease, and has remained stable since then. The shrinking has reduced the volume of freshwater for Chad, Cameroon, Nigeria, and Niger.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates that the severe consequences of climate change will be borne by the regions with relatively hot climates, where many low-income countries are located. In the past 50 years, drought-related hazards have led to over 500,000 fatalities, with an estimated economic loss of over US$ 70 billion(Climate Change is an Increasing Threat to Africa | UNFCCC, 2020). The effects come against the backdrop of over 1,000 flood-related disasters that have caused more than 20,000 deaths in the continent over the same period. The harsh climate will collectively cost African countries US$ 50 billion annually by 2050. For example, the African Climate Policy Centre projects that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of five African sub-regions would decrease significantly due to the rise in the global temperature. For an increase of 1-4°C in the earth's temperature about the pre-industrial levels, the continent's overall GPD is forecasted to drop by 2.25-12.12%, with West, Central, and East Africa bearing the effects more than the North and South of Africa (Climate Change is an Increasing Threat to Africa | UNFCCC, 2020).
A Guest Editorial