The
migration of poor people to rich countries is a phenomenon overloaded with
toxic associations, a subject politicised before it has been analysed. This is
the starting point for Paul Collier’s lively exploration of perhaps the most
contentious issue of our age, one that he sees as a natural extension of his
influential previous books on the bottom billion people on our planet.
The
former World Bank economist, who now advises presidents and prime ministers,
thinks people are focusing on the wrong question. He says the key issue is not
whether the impact of immigration is good or bad – although if pressed, he
would come down on the side of good. He argues, instead, that we should focus
on how much migration there should be and, more interestingly, who it really
helps.
It
definitely boosts those making the move in search of a better life. Their pay
and productivity soar, the latter a consequence of moving to a better organised
society. They send home huge remittances – almost four times global aid flows
at $400bn – that help those left at home through bad times and encourage the
spread of improved governance. Yet there can be a psychological cost to what he
calls “a decentralised aid programme”.
This
book underscores the superficiality of “brain drain” claims. Although some of
the smartest people leave poor countries, overall educational standards can
rise as parents invest in their children’s schooling in the hope they might
migrate one day. Many educated abroad return; one study found two-thirds of
heads of governments in developing nations studied in foreign countries.
Collier argues the danger comes in a small nation such as Haiti that has seen
85% of educated citizens leave, although in truth this is an unusual case of
such a shattered country sitting so close to the world’s richest nation.
He
concludes migration is good for those left behind as well as the new host
nation, while the only people who suffer economically are, he claims, previous
immigrants. Yet drawing on cases such as Haiti, he frets about the damage of
faster emigration. For at the centre of his thesis is the idea that migration
has an inbuilt inclination to speed up. As a diaspora grows, it becomes easier
for others from the same community to make the same move: they can find family
members to provide beds, friends to give them work, familiar food.
This
may well be true. Yet from this finding he paints a dark picture of dangerous
growth and declining assimilation, a curious conclusion given much of the evidence
he has compiled. The reality, as shown by countries such as Canada and the US
and cities such as London – where one-third of residents are now foreign-born –
is that even large, rapid waves of immigration fuel success with surprisingly
little tension. It is not enough to talk of American exceptionalism or put
forward straw man arguments revolving around uncontrolled immigration.
Collier’s
logic can lead him down strange paths. Previously, he has praised military
coups for removing unpleasant regimes. Now he wants to reduce the rights of
migrants to bring in close relatives. He also focuses on cultural differences
but ignores class, so essential to understanding the success and failures of
immigration to Britain. Yet for all these flaws, Exodus is a valuable addition
to the swelling library of books on this subject, written for a wide audience
and containing some fascinating data.
One
study that found giving mobile phones to households in Niger increased
emigration illustrates the incredible impact of technology, for example.
Another revealed Senegalese people in Spain send home half their earnings, a
higher share than any other migrant community; Cubans in America and Turks in
Germany send home 2% of income.
We
are only beginning to grapple with the issues raised by modern migration.
Collier shows its complexity in discussing the two African countries with the
largest diasporas, Cape Verde and Eritrea; one among the best-governed nations
on the continent, the other ruled by one of its most ghastly regimes. Although,
he remarks astutely, “mass migration… is a temporary response to an ugly phase
in which prosperity has not yet globalised”.
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