Standard Chartered Bank’s African economist responsible for The Gambia has
disclosed that in terms of growth they expect Asia to continue driving the
global economy in 2018.
Emmanuel Kwapong, who flew into the country from United Kingdom, made this remarks during his presentation at the recent Standard Chartered Bank organised first Thought Leadership Seminar on The Gambia’s Economic Outlook at a local hotel.
The Gambia Economic Outlook 2018, enable people to get the key insights to understanding the 2018 macroeconomic otlook, the National Development Plan and The 2018 Budget.
“In terms of growth we expect Asia to continue driving the global economy. We expect this growth to be very strong. However, in Africa we are basically neutral although we expect the growth to pick in Africa as well. So here we are again showing yes it is indeed China and Asia excluding Japan that are going to drive the growth.”
According to him, they expect global growth in 2018 to pick up significantly, as they are forecasting a growth of 3.9% in 2018 from their previous forecasting 3.6% in 2017.
“What is interesting in 2018 is that we expect this growth to be broad-based, so we expect strong growth in advanced economies but also in emerging economies”
Going by their chart, he added, shows out-growth forecast for a number of economies that they covered, adding that the chart also saw strong growth from Asia but also in the African region.
The SCB official said they forecast growth to be very strong in 2018, saying the post financial crisis of 2009 saw many central banks embarked on significant quantitative measures.
“In 2018 we expect the pace of normalisation by these central banks – the gradual withdrawal of that quantitative measures that they have introduced over the years to come down as growth is picking up to prevent any over-heating of the economy”.
Kwapong indicated that they’ve already seen inflation pick-up in US in the UK as well as Euro areas.
The SCB official noted that another factor that they will be looking for is geo-politics as they are a number of elections scheduled in the globe, citing Sierra Leone, Cameroon and Egypt as countries in Africa scheduled for election in 2018.
“But more importantly looking at the global stage, the Italian elections will be a main focus in terms of the outcome of that election. There is a significant chance that the party that is not so pro EU could win that election. We’ve here before last year when they were fierce in France as well as other economies in Netherlands and Nordic region”
The forum attracted representatives from government, private sector organisations and financial institutions in the country.